The Trump Effect in Israel

Nimrod Rosler and Alon Yakter

NIMROD ROSLER is a Senior Lecturer at Tel Aviv University and the academic head of its International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation.

ALON YAKTER is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Political Science, Government, and International Relations at Tel Aviv University.

When U.S. President Donald Trump visited Israel in October 2025, he was greeted by the Israeli public and the country’s political leaders as a savior, having brokered a deal to end the war in Gaza. When Trump delivered a speech to the Knesset, his almost-royal reception by members of parliament screened alongside dramatic footage of the release of the remaining living Israeli hostages on TV channels across the country.

Trump’s ability to break through the deadlock that has defined Israeli politics for decades stems from his high standing among Jewish Israelis. By forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a fully realized 20-step road map for peace he did not produce, Trump has mobilized Israeli public opinion across partisan lines in favor of negotiation with the Palestinians. We co-direct the Peace Index, a survey that, since 1994, has regularly polled Israeli attitudes toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the chance for its resolution. And in November last year, we conducted a survey of Israelis’ views of Trump’s plan and found that Jewish Israelis, particularly those on the political right and center, were more willing to consider peace negotiations when they were told such negotiations bore Trump’s imprimatur.

The implications of this “Trump effect” are far-ranging. Trump has already defied virtually every assumption scholars and policymakers held about Israeli public opinion and the traditional roles of international mediators. Now, he has a chance to defy history by winning a lasting peace in the Middle East—but only if Washington can harness his influence to push the parties to follow through on the plan.

For the full article (behind a paywall) see https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/trump-effect-israel